[SMM Coal and Coke Daily Briefing] 20251229

[SMM Daily Brief Comment on Coal and Coke]

Coking Coal Market:

The quoted price of low-sulphur coking coal in Linfen is 1,600 yuan/mt, while that in Tangshan is 1,480 yuan/mt.

In terms of raw material fundamentals, the production of some coal mines has plummeted due to the impact of safety accidents and the completion of annual capacity tasks. However, the market still holds expectations for a decline in coke prices, with negative feedback transmitted upstream, resulting in a relatively high rate of failed online auctions for coking coal. This week, coking coal prices are expected to be in the doldrums.

Coke Market:

The nationwide average price of first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 1,790 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 1,650 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price of first-grade metallurgical coke (wet quenching) is 1,440 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (wet quenching) is 1,350 yuan/mt.

In terms of news, some steel mills have reduced the prices of wet-quenched coke by 50 yuan/mt and dry-quenched coke by 55 yuan/mt, effective from midnight on January 1, 2026. In terms of supply, coke enterprises are not suffering severe losses, which has a relatively small impact on production enthusiasm, and coke supply remains stable for the time being. However, coke enterprises have encountered difficulties in shipments recently, leading to a certain accumulation of coke inventory. In terms of demand, the hot metal production of steel mill blast furnaces continues to decline downstream, weakening rigid demand. Moreover, the performance of terminal steel product consumption has fallen short of expectations, making it difficult for steel mills to improve profitability. Additionally, with steel mills' coke inventory at a reasonable level, there has been an increase in controlling coke arrivals. In summary, market sentiment is relatively pessimistic, coupled with weak cost support, coke prices are expected to remain under pressure this week, and there is a strong expectation for the implementation of the fourth round of price reductions. [SMM Steel]